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Oil Trading DOE Stats 6 Oct 2009

Trying to make sense of the weekly oil stats is something oil traders have to get to grips with when oil trading and many use the weekly DOE forecast.  Recently this forecast has been somewhat wide of the mark thereby leading to heightened volatility around the time the numbers are released.  Nevertheless here is this week’s forecast:

The data, put out by the DOE (Department of Energy) Information Administration unit and covering the week ended Oct. 2, is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday 7th October and, once again, concensus opinion is suggesting that crude oil stocks are due to rise for a 3rd consecutive week as refiners cut processing rates.  As of 25th Sept crude oil stocks were still above their 5 year average level, standing at 338.4m barrels and were 11.4% or circa 35m barrels above the already revised level.  This week the crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 1.3m barrels.

Gasoline stocks were also seen above their 5 year average level last week at 211.5m barrels & 10.6% above this time last year.  This week too stocks of gasoline are expected to rise by 1.2m barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include both diesel and heating oil, are also expected to rise by a further 400k barrels.  These too are standing at their highest level since January 1983 and about 33% above last year.

Refining capacity is expected to drop by 0.6% relative to last week when it was cut by 1% to 84.6%.

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