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DOE Forecast 2 Sep 2009

Trying to interpret the weekly crude oil inventory stats released each Wednesday is something all oil traders and investors have to do but often the numbers quoted by the “experts” can appear very wide of the mark.  However, understanding and harnessing the sometimes volatile response to these number can make for some very profitable trades.  Here is the forecast for this week:

Crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 400,000 barrels, according to the mean of 12 analysts’ forecasts.  Gasoline inventories are seen declining by 700,000 barrels while stocks of distillate, which includes heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 700,000 barrels.  Refinery use is seen rising by 0.3 percentage point to 84.4% of capacity.

Yesterday the the American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.2m barrel drop in oil inventories, a 2.8m barrel decline in gasoline stocks and a 900,000k increase in distillate inventories. Refinery runs were pegged at 84.5% of capacity.

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