October crude oil futures look as though they will finish the month of August just about where they started following two failed attempts at the $75 per barrel price point just as the USD Index was unable to post new lows. With thin volumes in this holiday shortened week and next Monday’s Labor Day we can expect a degree of price volatility and over reaction to any fundamental data or news. With China’s Shanghai Composite posting fresh lows and tomorrow’s release of China’s Purchasing Managers’ Data, US ISM, Wednesday’s factory orders and Non Farm Payroll on Friday will all, no doubt, conspire to keep oil traders on their toes. This heady combination of factors could even provoke yet another technical “spike up” to re-test the $75 per barrel price point despite a continued large supply surplus. If oil trading were restricted to market oil supply and demand fundamentals would put oil prices at around $60-$65 per barrel.
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