Trying to interpret the weekly crude oil inventory stats released each Wednesday is something all oil traders and investors have to do but often the numbers quoted by the “experts” can appear very wide of the mark.  However, understanding and harnessing the sometimes volatile response to these number can make for some very profitable trades.  [...]

October crude oil futures look as though they will finish the month of August just about where they started following two failed attempts at the $75 per barrel price point just as the USD Index was unable to post new lows.  With thin volumes in this holiday shortened week and next Monday’s Labor Day we [...]

Moves by the CFTC to try and regulate the oil trading market and prevent the kind of speculation which has seen crude oil prices rise from $30 per barrel back towards $70+ this year took an interesting twist yesterday when it was announced that the weekly COT data would now include new details on the [...]

Yesterday’s price action on the oil trading market which saw the WTI oil contract fall almost 3 dollars seemed to suggest the  loosening of the hitherto tight correlation between a weak US Dollar & buoyant equity markets.  However, this explanation is insufficient as equities held up  reasonably well and the dollar was still relatively weak [...]

Successful oil futures trading not only requires the ability to blend technical analysis with an understanding of the underlying oil market fundamentals but also the ability to rise above the noise which is generated in a financial sector which can at the mercy of both market and geo political forces.  Oil trading is as much [...]

Crude oil prices continued to trade higher with a bullish tone on the daily oil chart, ending the oil trading session with a wide spread up bar which confirmed the positive sentiment in the oil market once again, and confirmed the view that Friday’s sharp sell off in the crude oil market, was nothing more [...]

The CFTC is once again considering ways to curb the speculation in oil trading by futures traders which has seen oil prices spike from $40 to over$70 per barrel in the last few months, as the regulatory authority continues to try to provide a solution to the ongoing problem of volatility in oil prices.The CFTC [...]

Crude oil is currently trying to push back towards the $75 per barrel price handle aided and abetted by equity markets which have managed to regain their equilibrium following last week’s volatility resulting from Obama’s banking regulation proposals. Oil prices have also been helped by a modest weakening of the US dollar and the [...]

The oil trading complex has started the week strongly by pushing back up beyond Friday’s highs towards the $80 per barrel mark on the back of dollar weakness following comments from Fed Member James Bullard who said he would prefer to see the FED keep the asset buying programme active beyond its current cut-off date [...]

Until the WTI stops being the benchmark for the oil market oil traders will have to continue to study the weekly crude oil inventories which yesterday came in uber bearish with almost 1.8m barrels added to the crude oil stockpile.  This compared with an average estimate of a 200k barrel increase.  The API data had [...]

Oil prices are still in the process of recouping more than half of Friday’s sharp losses with assistance from Hurricane Ida and a weaker US Dollar. Over the weekend Ida shifted course and gained strength in contrast to prior expectations. However, it does not appear to be a major threat to oil facilities [...]

Although crude futures have managed to recover at the start of the oil trading week on some dollar weakness and equity strength, rising more than $1.25 from Friday’s close, the advance has thus far been somewhat uninspiring with a further run at $80 unlikely, at least until the EIA stats on Wednesday.  The appearance of [...]

DOE data for oil trading will be released on Thursday instead of Wednesday owing to this week’s Columbus Day Holiday.  The data put out by the Department’s EIA unit and covering week ended 9 Oct is due for release at 11.00 am EDT.  The API which would normally be put out today, is also delayed [...]

Yesterday’s sharp 3% advance in oil trading took crude futures to fresh 2 week highs was almost entirely due to current dollar weakness, a surging gold price & buoyuant equity markets, all of which pointing to an overall improvement in economic outlook.  In addition favourable earnings reports also seem to be driving the current mood [...]

Trying to make sense of the weekly oil stats is something oil traders have to get to grips with when oil trading and many use the weekly DOE forecast.  Recently this forecast has been somewhat wide of the mark thereby leading to heightened volatility around the time the numbers are released.  Nevertheless here is this [...]

DOE Forecast for trading oil:
Tomorrow’s crude oil inventory is expected to show crude stocks dropping for a third consecutive week.  Oil inventories are expected to fall by 1.4m, according to the mean of 9 analysts’ forecast with their estimates ranging from a fall of 3.56m to an increase of 2m barrels – a nice wide [...]

Oil trading yesterday managed a sizeable rebound of almost $3.00 yesterday after the WTI oil contract had posted some of the lowest levels in almost a week.  The catalyst was again the upswing in equities with a consequent weakening of the US dollar, giving us a decidedly bullish bias.  However, despite these drivers the oil [...]